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Analysis: The 2014 governor’s race – in which we are much the same

Susan Bigelow
Susan Bigelow

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

So, here we are again. Dan Malloy has defeated Tom Foley by a slim margin, after an election troubled by frustration and incompetence at the polls in one of our cities. After all that, after a wearying election that was far more about fear, money, and blame than policy, government, or even the idea of the next four years, we’re right back where it all began.

First, the nuts and bolts of the election, and of why Malloy managed to eke out another win: Foley did a lot better in the most rural areas of the state, and he did manage to increase his margins in a few of the more Republican-friendly towns in lower Fairfield County. But Malloy narrowed the gap in the Hartford and New Haven suburbs, held on to the southeast coastline, and kept the same massive lead in the big cities and key inner suburbs as he’d had in 2010.

A lot of towns voted just about exactly how they did four years ago, give or take a couple hundred votes. I create election maps by filling in the color for each town, based on margin of victory, and I used the 2010 map as a template for the 2014 one. This saved a lot of time, because I was able to leave many towns the same. They didn’t change at all. The most likely predictor of who you voted for in this election, I believe, was who you voted for in 2010. Steady habits.

See the complete story at CT News Junkie.

 

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