With the U.S. House likely to stay in Republican control, most electoral analysis has focused on the Senate. Yet there are 36 gubernatorial elections this year, from the Boston Harbor to the San Diego beaches, that have mostly escaped statistical analysis. No longer!
Early polling suggests Republicans are likely to maintain something close to their current 29-to-21 edge in governorships. Should we trust that polling?
For the most part, yes. Early gubernatorial polling is, like early Senate polling, fairly predictive of who will win in the fall.
I collected polling data for gubernatorial elections since 2006. It includes all races without a major third-party candidate and with at least one poll in the field from January through June of the election year. I used the same averaging technique as I did in my article on senatorial elections, which is similar to the average RealClearPolitics applies.
See the complete story at fivethirtyeight.com.